Swaminathan Aiyar's latest column was "Gulf Oil: Declining US oil imports could push up Indian expenditure on Navy".
I am too lazy to summarize his points so you wil have to put in the effort of reading there. Sorry.
India's navy expense will go up but it will not be because of US shifting out of Gulf. I don't agree to his reasons. It will go up because of ambitions.
1. Its still a decade to 2020. For the simple idea just open any of such studies that were published in 2001 stating how the world would be in 2011. And check the original figures of 2011. You will get a clear idea of why such studies shouldn't be taken too seriously. One should read them but not make a hypothesis based on them.
2. Aiyer's argument that US will shift out of gulf and make ways for China is also not quite correct. US will muddle in the middle east for two reasons. First it will be there because the 'Israel Lobby' will make sure that US remain in close proximity of the country for emergency support. Second, US had no business in Vietnam and yet it fought the communist. The USofA is too used to playing police and making sure it has strike capabilities all over the world within few hours. And for this goal it will maintain its hold in middle east.
Recently to counter the growing presence of China in South China sea, the USofA decided that it will station marines in Australia. (Link).
