Thinking Stupidly: Modi. A hope for many.

Recently I came across an article where an NRI had written why he is gung-ho on India. Since I don’t have his permission to put up the entire thing, let me just put up the points on why he is so bullish:

Lets call the gentleman Mr A. So Mr A says, "There have been very few world leaders who have possessed a combination of Modi’s extraordinary vision, drive, experience, and charisma." The way he arrived at this conclusion was --

In the May 2014 elections, Narendra Modi won an unprecedented mandate and has completely transformed the landscape of Indian politics.
Narendra Modi is the first Prime Minister of India who has come to power at the national level after demonstrating proven leadership in one of the most economically vibrant states of India—Gujarat.
The State of Gujarat, where he was the Chief Minister (U.S. equivalent of Governor) for more than a decade, has seen unparalleled economic progress due to his success in rooting out corruption, enhancing infrastructure, and improving governance, thereby making Gujarat the most sought after state in India for not only foreign direct investment (FDI) but also for investment by mega Indian business houses such as Tatas and Ambanis.
Modi became the first person in India to run a Presidential-style campaign for the highest political office in the country.
No other leader has garnered as much support and warmth on foreign soil. More than two dozen U.S. Senators, Governors, Congressmen, and Congresswomen attended the event.
Mr Modi will focus on India’s three unique strengths -- (a) Democratic institutions. (b) Demographic dividend (c) Gigantic market place
Mr. Modi has also brought with him a clean brand of politics which has been uncommon in India. There are a large percentage of lawmakers in India who are in trouble with the law. Mr. Modi has consciously selected a trustworthy cabinet which does not include many of his own party’s stalwarts and old guard and he himself possesses an impeccable record.
On the centenary year of Gandhi’s return to India from South Africa, Mr. Modi has given a clarion call to all Indians living abroad to return to India and contribute to its economy
The Mission to Mars that India is proud of launching recently is a crown jewel in the country’s progress in science and technology. He quipped that the mission cost less than a quarter per mile to launch.

PM Modi has done a lot of good things (from a businessman's perspective). If I am running an MNC I think he is the best PM to have. But everything comes at a price. The only question is whether one is more interested in next 10 years or would like to look at it from a longer term perspective maybe 100 years or more and hence take steps while understanding the full consequence of their actions.

During the great depression Franklin D Roosevelt had written, "The country needs and, unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it; if it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." His thinking was the government needs to try something to bring growth, and FDR understood that not everything will work. And he was prepared for it.

If look at it more closely, there were two factors that supported FDRs thinking, the international laws were not as complicated nor were they as enforceable as they are today, and one could always use their military strength to deal with an unfavorable outcome. Communication modes were still developing, and the country had more resources and less people.

But our PM Modi doesn't have that edge that FDR had.

Less talked about facts

1. Though Modi is not the sole culprit, but knowing him I wouldn't be surprised if he actually weakens the court structure. It was not strong earlier nor free of corruption, but now it will be easy for politicians to corrupt it or run it on their whims and fancies. This is a major flaw that we are about to introduce.

The government has introduced two bills in Parliament on the appointment of judges of the Supreme Court and high courts. One of these is a Constitution amendment bill, which proposes that the current system of consultation with the chief justice of India and other senior judges be replaced by recommendations from a new body called the judicial appointments commission (JAC). The other bill specifies the composition of the JAC and its functions. Together, these two bills may have enabled the dilution of some of the safeguards in the current system of appointments.

The process of judges selecting their new colleagues is sought to be modified so that the executive also has a role to play. The Constitution is being amended so that the process of "consultation" with judges is replaced by "the recommendation of the judicial appointments commission". The Constitution amendment bill also removes the proviso that requires consultation with the CJI. It adds a new Article 124A, which states that Parliament may, by law, determine the composition of the JAC, the appointment, qualification and terms of service of its chairperson and members, its functions and the manner of selection of judges.

Read more on:
http://www.prsindia.org/theprsblog/?p=2987
http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/case-not-closed/1164724/0

2. Secondly his coming in power will dilute the environment ministry and forest ministry and get all projects cleared at central level. But effective implementation in most cases will be done by the state government. Now the government can definitely come to the aid by allowing all development to take place on the area that comes under the jurisdiction of the central government forests. Two we don’t live in the 19th century where growth is only important, sustainability is also something that we need to keep an eye on.

Through a quick series of notifications, the Union environment ministry has eased rules for mining, roads, power and irrigation projects and other industrial sectors. It has diluted a host of regulations related to environment, forest and tribal rights.

Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar had earlier done away with the requirement of public hearing for coal mines below 16 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) wishing to expand output by up to 50 per cent. This has now been extended to mines above 16 mtpa, permitting them to mine up to five mtpa more without consulting affected people.

The need for consent from gram sabhas for prospecting in forests has also been done away with. This dilutes the Forest Rights Act, which requires the consent of tribals before forest land is diverted to industrial activity.

So if there is a new drawn support for naxalites then we will just have to accept the consequences.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/nda-eases-green-rules-to-push-investments-114080700031_1.html

http://business-humanrights.org/en/india-eased-industry-regulations-may-endanger-human-rights

I don’t say what he has done is wrong, perhaps it was right but in being pro-industry don’t ravage your own population. Visit the ground and solve problems on case to case basis, in such cases there is no one size fits all approach.

3. The current tactics of polarizing to win elections is setting up a poor precedent for the future. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-29828802

And hence it is important to see how he deals with the fringe organisations like RSS, VHP, Bajrangdal etc.

Gujarat’s new compulsory reading list for government primary and secondary students doesn’t just seek to educate students on “facts” about India’s culture, history and geography. It also has its own take on science, particularly landmark inventions.

“…America wants to take the credit for invention of stem cell research, but the truth is that India’s Dr Balkrishna Ganpat Matapurkar has already got a patent for regenerating body parts…. You would be surprised to know that this research is not new and that Dr Matapurkar was inspired by the Mahabharata. Kunti had a bright son like the sun itself. When Gandhari, who had not been able to conceive for two years, learnt of this, she underwent an abortion. From her womb a huge mass of flesh came out. (Rishi)

Dwaipayan Vyas was called. He observed this hard mass of flesh and then he preserved it in a cold tank with specific medicines. He then divided the mass of flesh into 100 parts and kept them separately in 100 tanks full of ghee for two years. After two years, 100 Kauravas were born of it. On reading this, he (Matapurkar) realised that stem cell was not his invention. This was found in India thousands of years ago.” — Page 92-93, Tejomay Bharat

“We know that television was invented by a priest from Scotland called John Logie Baird in 1926. But we want to take you to an even older Doordarshan… Indian rishis using their yog vidya would attain divya drishti. There is no doubt that the invention of television goes back to this… In Mahabharata, Sanjaya sitting inside a palace in Hastinapur and using his divya shakti would give a live telecast of the battle of Mahabharata… to the blind Dhritarashtra”. — Page 64

And I am not sure how PM Modi will put the foundations of technological brilliance when we are about teach such stuff to our students. Most certainly I would like to see how the Indian Diaspora explain this to their children.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/gujarat/science-lesson-from-gujarat-stem-cells-in-mahabharata-cars-in-veda/

4. His cabinet selection is poor too. Let me quote Reuters on it --

Attempted murder, waging war on the state, criminal intimidation and fraud are some of the charges on the rap sheets of ministers Prime Minister Narendra Modi appointed to the cabinet on Sunday, jarring with his pledge to clean up politics.

Seven of 21 new ministers face prosecution, taking the total in the 66-member cabinet to almost one third, a higher proportion than before the weekend expansion.

At least five people in the cabinet have been charged with serious offences such as rape and rioting.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/new-junior-minister-for-education-faces-charges-of-forging-his-marksheet-620584

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/police-unable-to-identify-union-minister-nihal-chands-address-to-deliver-summons/?SocialMedia

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/india-politics-crime-idINKCN0IU1A920141110

Although the inclusion seems more political, because of what I hear from various journalist is that all powers have been centralized with the secretaries and all decisions are routed through PMO. And there is not many exceptions except for Finance Minister.

5. Things that are neither new nor surprising, but I don’t know why people talk about them.

People of Indian Origin. If my memory serves right every new govt gives that call, especially if it’s an NDA government, good for NRI’s to take part in India’s growth story. It is standard road show.
Mars mission is not jewel in his crown, every government passes the rules, and scientists work on it. Maybe most people are not aware but ISRO makes profit also, as it launches number of satellite for different countries and companies.

“Globally, the space industry business turnover was $160 billion, while at Antrix it was $200 million,” said Dr.V S Hegde during July 2011 while taking over as chief of Antrixand; as quoted in a report in The Hindu newspaper.

There are so many things which run independently or go in their own routine it is best they are not given undue attention.

Not all hope is lost.

It seems PM Modi wants something good for the country as well. Like when he said he wants a moratorium to all hate and violence for next 10 years on 15th Aug speech.

He has also forced bureaucrats and colleagues refraining to go out for lunches with businessmen or meeting them outside office, hence making crony capitalism a bit difficult. Everyone has been advised to stay disciplined and focused. (http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/dear-lutyens-reporters-welcome-to-the-club-114111200894_1.html)

He has given promotion to a number of capable IAS, especially to all those who had not hesitated to take on the politicians in the previous government and off-late he seems to be giving chances to his critics, his choice for Chief Economic Advisor, although I am not sure if that will always the case.

The relationship and the groundwork that PM Dr Singh had done in his 10 years on foreign relationships is being properly utilised by PM Modi since he took over charge. All the roadshows and foreign trips reflect that he is trying to capitalise on it and perhaps saying the right things (minus the part when PM Modi said "may the power be with you" while on trip to USofA)

Summing up

Therefore, it is important to not only look at only the negatives or the positives or taking myopic view. What is necessary is to acknowledge all of it and show all facets so that if the leadership is making mistakes then it is able to correct the course but if it’s a systematic exploitation then the same is noticed at the earliest. To be blinded by any one side will surely lead to exploitation and create a bubble.

Mahatma Gandhi had said, “It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err.” And Albert Einstein had said, "A true genius admits that he/she knows nothing." I am not even a percent as smart as these giants were. So I could be wrong about PM Modi. Nonetheless it is too early at this stage to not be careful, small signs of trouble have also surfaced along with hope.

Thinking Stupidly

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Modi. A hope for many.

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